Canadian political leaders are congratulating Donald Trump on winning back the U.S. presidency — a victory that raises stark questions about what Canada-U.S. relations will look like over the next four years.
During Trump’s first term in office, his administration sparred with Canada over trade issues, including the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and tariffs imposed on certain Canadian aluminum products.
Immigration also became a source of tension between the two countries when Trump announced a travel ban that affected several Muslim-majority countries — a move that prompted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to tout Canada’s immigration system.
These issues are expected to crop up again after Trump takes office in January. During his campaign, Trump promised to impose a minimum 10 per cent global tariff and stage mass deportations.
Trudeau’s cabinet ministers said Wednesday that Canada is prepared for a second Trump presidency.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne, International Trade Minister Mary Ng and National Defence Minister Bill Blair discuss how they expect to work with the new Trump administration on trade, foreign affairs and defence.
“We’ve gone through this and we’re ready,” Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said.
Here’s a look back at some of the toughest moments in the bilateral relationship during Trump’s first presidency — and a glimpse of what might happen during his second term.
Renegotiating NAFTA
Almost immediately after taking office in 2017, Trump and his team called for the renegotiation of the NAFTA trade deal with Canada and Mexico — and threatened to give six months’ notice of the deal’s termination if those two countries didn’t play ball.
That kicked off 14 months of intense and often fractious negotiations between Canada and the U.S. A deal was finally reached in September 2018 and took effect in 2020. The new agreement also had a new name: the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)
The core of the deal was a trade-off between greater U.S. access to Canada’s dairy market, which is heavily protected by a system of supply management, and Canadian demands for the maintenance of a dispute resolution process.
The new North American trade deal took effect on Wednesday. CUSMA, often called “the new NAFTA,” brings changes to the duties and taxes paid on items shipped from the U.S.
Aaron Ettinger, an associate professor at Carleton University who specializes in U.S. foreign policy, said the negotiation process was “grueling and arduous,” although “things turned out okay for Canada in the end.”
“But the entirety of Canada’s economic prosperity was put on the line there,” Ettinger said.
The USMCA is up for review and renewal in 2026. Trump has vowed to reopen the agreement, but so did his election opponent Kamala Harris.
Trump’s travel ban and immigration
In early 2017, Trump also signed the Executive Order on Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States, which banned people from several Muslim-majority countries from entering the U.S.
The order led to global outrage and was described as an effective ban on Muslims entering the United States. Canadian officials scrambled to understand the order’s impact on everything from refugee claims to biometric tracking.
After the order was signed, Trudeau posted on social media that “Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith.” He also said he would continue to promote Canada’s open immigration policy in the face of Trump’s order.
To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada
After Trump was first elected, the number of asylum seekers who were turned away at official border points by Canadian officials spiked significantly.
According to data provided to CBC News by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 1,949 asylum seekers were turned back in 2017 — Trump’s first year in office.
In 2016, 731 were refused entry. In 2015, 418 were turned away and in 2014, just 456 were denied entry.
Trump has pledged to go after all undocumented immigrants in the United States and carry out mass deportations during his second term, a vow that has some experts asking whether there will be spillover effects for Canada.
Jason Kenney, who served as immigration minister under former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, told CBC News last week that Canada needs to take that prospect “very, very seriously” and warned that “we don’t have the ability to police” a sudden wave of newcomers.
A Quebec summit gone wrong
On the heels of a G7 summit in Charlevoix, Que., Trump suddenly tweeted out personal attacks on Prime Minister Trudeau, calling him “very dishonest” and “weak.”
He was apparently reacting to remarks Trudeau made when he was pressed by reporters to respond to Trump’s tough talk on trade at a closing press conference. At the time, Canada and the U.S. were in NAFTA talks and at odds over adding a sunset provision to the new agreement.
Trudeau shut down the idea of a sunset provision and said “that’s not on the table.” The prime minister also said his government was going ahead with a plan to impose more than $16.5 billion in tariffs on U.S. goods.
PM Justin Trudeau of Canada acted so meek and mild during our @G7 meetings only to give a news conference after I left saying that, “US Tariffs were kind of insulting” and he “will not be pushed around.” Very dishonest & weak. Our Tariffs are in response to his of 270% on dairy!
In a separate tweet, Trump wrote that he instructed U.S. representatives to withdraw support for the summit’s closing communique and explore imposing tariffs on “automobiles flooding the U.S. market!”
When asked by reporters for his reaction to Trump’s tweets, and his thoughts on what Trump’s move could mean for the future of the G7, Trudeau didn’t answer.
Ettinger said that Trudeau’s relationship with Trump “started off promising but eventually became completely poisoned.”
Prime Minster Justin Trudeau speaks to reporters at the conclusion of the G7 leaders summit in Charlevoix, Que.
“If Trudeau is still in power [when Trump takes office], it will be the worst start of a new president’s term in terms of prime ministerial [and] presidential relationships,” he added.
Ettinger also said that if Trudeau can “say all of the nice things about Donald Trump that Trump wants, then I can see that relationship being repaired.”
“But whether or not Justin Trudeau has the stomach to do that kind of thing is a whole other story,” Ettinger said.
Retaliatory tariffs
In 2020, Canada said it would impose dollar-for-dollar tariffs on U.S. metal products after Trump re-imposed tariffs of 10 per cent on some Canadian aluminum products, ending a period of calm on the U.S.-Canada trade front.
At the time, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called the Trump administration the most protectionist in U.S. history. She also called its rationale for new tariffs “ludicrous” and “absurd.”
Both Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Quebec Premier François Legault expressed disappointment with Trump for re-imposing the tariffs. Legault thanked Trudeau for imposing counter-tariffs.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland says Canada will impose dollar-for-dollar tariffs on U.S. metals products after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on some Canadian aluminum products yesterday.
Trump has promised to implement a minimum tariff of 10 per cent on all imports entering the United States during his second term. Sources have told CBC News that Trump’s allies have offered no assurances of a reprieve for Canada.
Gerald Butts, Trudeau’s former principal secretary, developed close relationships with some of Trump’s advisers during his first term. He told CBC’s The House that he’s “not sure there’s going to be a way of talking Donald Trump out of this.”
Butts also said Trump is not afraid to wield access to the U.S. market to get what he wants out of negotiations.
Canada already has started talks with members of Trump’s inner circle about avoiding new trade tariffs. The federal government has warned of retaliation on U.S. goods if the tariffs are imposed on Canada.
Ettinger said he expects Trump to impose the tariffs quickly and he doesn’t think Canada will get the exemption it wants.
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